International news via Reuters:

 Britain’s government wants to tame its ballooning bill for supporting people with disabilities and long-term health conditions which, despite the cost, leaves many claimants distressed or struggling to find work.

Annual spending on incapacity and disability benefits already exceeds the country’s defence budget and is set to top 100 billion pounds ($129 billion) by 2030 according to official forecasts, up from 65 billion pounds now.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned this week that the welfare arrangements he inherited from the previous government were “indefensible economically and morally” and he wanted to see more people back in work. His government is expected to propose changes next week.

Broadcaster ITV has reported that the reform would include 6 billion pounds of cuts, alarming some lawmakers from Starmer’s left-leaning Labour Party.

Finance minister Rachel Reeves is keen to find ways to reduce the benefits bill as official forecasts due on March 26 may otherwise show the government will miss its debt-reduction goals.

Welfare experts say the government will nevertheless struggle to ensure that a push for quick savings does not jeopardise longer-term efforts to boost employment.

“Trust is very low,” said Louise Murphy, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation think tank, adding that many disabled people on benefits feared losing money or facing a tough time with a work coach if they considered employment.

Asked about potential cuts, a spokesperson for Britain’s Department for Work and Pensions said it had “a duty to put welfare spending on a more sustainable path … through meaningful, principled reforms rather than arbitrary cuts to spending”.

FIRST STEPS

Chelsea Shubert, 23, is the type of person the government wants to encourage. 

Diagnosed with autism and living with anxiety, dyslexia and other conditions, she left school without key qualifications and received unemployment and disability benefits.

In 2021, a government employment adviser urged her to do an unpaid six-month stint at a charity shop, which did not lead to a job.

But she has now passed an English exam and began her first paid job as a school crossing guard in January.

“It’s very rewarding and gets me out, even though it’s only half an hour in the morning and half an hour in the evening,” she said.

Eventually she hopes to work with children for longer hours so she is not so reliant on benefits.

“Being someone that’s living with a disability and a health condition, this world that we live in is horrible. There’s not enough support out there,” she said.

Bad experiences with Britain’s benefits system are common, said Ben Baumberg Geiger, professor of social science and health at King’s College London.

His recent study based on a survey of nearly 4,000 claimants found two in five felt they would be better off dead or wished to commit an act of self-harm.

“We have a very dysfunctional benefit system that simultaneously is spending a lot of money … and at the same time doesn’t feel like it’s providing support,” he said.

While Britain’s unemployment rate is low by European standards at 4.4% of the workforce, 10% of the working-age population claim incapacity or disability benefits, up from about 8% before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Other European countries have not seen the same rise, which analysts suggest may reflect the gap between the levels of unemployment and disability benefits in Britain.

Most single jobless people get 393 pounds a month plus some housing costs, while those deemed too sick to work receive 810 pounds.

In addition, disabled people – in work or not – can receive a separate benefit averaging 586 pounds a month to cover extra disability-related costs.

The Resolution Foundation’s Murphy said the government was right to consider narrowing the gap between unemployment and incapacity benefits and whether regular lump-sum payments truly reflected extra costs caused by health conditions.

But she was concerned tighter eligibility rules for future claimants could see the brunt of cuts borne by an unlucky minority of disabled people.

Short-term budget pressures must not distract the government from getting more people back into work, Murphy said.

Geiger said Britain might learn from countries like the Netherlands, where employers are liable for initial costs if a staffer is no longer able to work due to ill health, increasing their incentive to retain the worker.

European countries with higher rates of employment for disabled people had achieved this through better working conditions rather than a benefits crackdown, he added.

In Britain, fewer than one in 100 people receiving the higher rate of incapacity benefit return to work each month – half the proportion in 2012, according to the Resolution Foundation.

One organisation which says it can help turn that round is the Shaw Trust, a charity which receives government contracts to prepare people with poor health to return to work or stay in their job by offering intensive, specialist support.

This costs more than 2,000 pounds per person and secures lasting employment for fewer than half those helped.

But the charity says it delivers an average return on investment for the taxpayer of 2.42 pounds per pound spent in the first year, rising to 9.22 pounds after three years.

The Shaw Trust’s chief commercial officer, Richard Clifton, hopes these figures ensure its work is spared from any public spending cuts.

“In reality these programmes give you payback within the year,” he said.

 ($1 = 0.7734 pounds)

Reporting by David Milliken; Editing by Hugh Lawson

International news via Reuters:

Two British diplomats expelled in a spying row. A blistering statement from Russia’s foreign intelligence service calling Britain “a warmonger.” And a threat from a top ally of Vladimir Putin to seize UK assets inside Russia.

As the U.S. under Donald Trump seeks to reset ties with Moscow and broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, Britain has been granted the status of Russia’s public enemy number one. 

It’s a mantle it has held on and off over the past two centuries.

“London today, like on the eve of both World Wars of the last century, is acting as the main global ‘warmonger’,” Russia’s foreign intelligence service said in an unusually charged public statement on Monday. It accused London of trying to derail Trump’s efforts to broker peace in Ukraine.

“The time has come to expose them and send a clear message to ‘perfidious Albion’ and its elites: you will not succeed,” the agency, known as the SVR, said.

It did not elaborate on its objections to Britain’s behaviour prior to the two World Wars. 

While Moscow has singled out Britain for particularly severe opprobium, it has ramped up its rhetoric against the European Union and French President Emmanuel Macron in particular too, whose talk of France’s nuclear arsenal as a counterpoint to a perceived Russian threat has angered the Kremlin.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has become Europe’s biggest and deadliest conflict since World War Two. It has left hundreds of thousands of dead and injured, displaced millions more, and triggered the sharpest confrontation between Moscow and the West in decades.

For most of the war, Russia lambasted Washington for its role in supplying aid to Kyiv. With Trump in office, that has changed. 

Three Russian officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to the media, said Britain was now regarded as Moscow’s main foe, with one fuming that London was “stoking chaos and war” in Ukraine. 

Another described Britain as the driving force in the West when it came to galvanising opposition to Russia. 

Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s talk this month of putting British boots on the ground and planes in the air in Ukraine as part of a potential peacekeeping force has angered senior Russian politicians.

So did his hosting of a meeting of the “coalition of the willing”, as well as his in-person and phone lobbying of Trump to support Ukraine.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has cast Starmer as fuelling tensions at the very moment when Trump was trying to calm them.

British diplomats in Russia say they know what they’re up against. Tit-for-tat expulsions have already shrunk the staff at Britain’s embassy by at least 10 diplomats since the start of the war. Neither Russia nor Britain has defence attaches in post.

Russia’s FSB security service on Monday accused a British diplomat and the spouse of another diplomat of spying and expelled them – allegations London called “baseless.” 

Britain summoned Russia’s ambassador in London on Wednesday and expelled a Russian diplomat and a diplomatic spouse in retaliation.  

“It is clear that the Russian state is actively seeking to drive the British Embassy in Moscow towards closure,” the British Foreign Office said in a statement on Wednesday.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry and British Foreign Office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

“HOSTILE ACTION”

Russia, according to the head of Britain’s MI6 Secret Intelligence Service, has used “staggeringly reckless” sabotage on British and European soil. 

A London court this month found three Bulgarians guilty of being part of a Russian spy unit. In October, a British man admitted to a London court that he had carried out an arson attack on a Ukrainian-owned warehouse in east London on behalf of Russia.

A British inquiry blamed Russia for the 2006 poisoning of Kremlin critic Alexander Litvinenko in London with a radioactive substance. London also accused Moscow of the 2018 Salisbury poisoning that used the Novichok nerve agent. Moscow rejected those accusations.

Some Russian politicians have suggested, without providing evidence, that Britain helped Ukraine carry out sabotage operations on Russian targets such as on the bridge linking Crimea with mainland Russia, in which two people were killed in 2023.   

One of the three Russian officials said Starmer, like Boris Johnson before him, was using the Ukraine war to distract from domestic problems. London says it wants to ensure Ukraine gets “a just peace” rather than being forced to capitulate.

‘THE ENGLISHWOMAN RELIEVES HERSELF’

Nationalist commentators on Russian state TV have started telling Russians that London has been trying to undermine Moscow for centuries. 

Despite London’s popularity as a Russian investment destination after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, distrust of Britain traces its roots back to at least the Crimean War of 1853-1856, when it was part of an alliance that defeated the Russian Empire.

Britain’s more recent purported transgressions have had Russian politicians reaching for a nineteenth century phrase used to describe Britain’s hostile foreign policy towards Russia under Queen Victoria: “The Englishwoman relieves herself” on Russia, a saying meant to signify Britain’s alleged systematic efforts to act as a spoiler.

The new, souring anti-British mood, which has been accompanied by a marked and rapid softening of anti-U.S. rhetoric in state media, could leave London more exposed.

As Russia enters a fourth year of war with its economy overheating, there is a sense in Moscow that Trump’s new approach offers a chance for peace on terms favourable to Moscow.

Some lawmakers have said companies from “hostile” nations like Britain should not be allowed back even if Western sanctions are eased after an eventual peace deal with Ukraine, or given a much harder ride if they are.  

Vyacheslav Volodin, a top Putin ally, this week spoke of the need to claw back money from Britain, a reference to interest accrued on frozen Russian assets in the UK worth around $26 billion that London has been handing to Ukraine. 

British-Russia trade has shrunk from over 16 billion pounds in 2021 to just over 2 billion pounds in 2023, according to UK government data, with oil company BP taking a hit of over $20 billion to exit Russia in 2022.

Other British companies, such as the British-Swedish pharmaceuticals giant AstraZeneca and GlaxoSmithKline, continue to do business there.

BRITISH LOCOMOTIVE

Some in Britain might be surprised by the global importance attributed to London’s intelligence services and special forces by Moscow. But one of the three Russian officials said London had shown it was able to lead by example on Ukraine.

“They’re the locomotive and pull others along with them,” the official said.

Britain, which offers training and finance to the Ukrainian military, was the first country to pledge Western-made main battle tanks to Ukraine and the first to deliver long-range cruise missiles at a time when other countries were hesitating. 

It deeply angered Russia.

“If today Britain is hitting our territory with its missiles from Ukraine … I consider this a good reason for Britain to cease to exist, Andrei Gurulyov, a pro-Putin lawmaker and former military commander, told state TV in January.

Russia’s attempt to cast Britain as a warmonger echoes Putin’s accusation that former British prime minister Boris Johnson persuaded Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to walk away from a potential peace deal in 2022, an assertion Johnson and Zelenskiy reject.

And though it would appear to weaken the charge that Britain poses a threat to Moscow, Russian politicians and commentators have been eager to point out the shrunken state of the British military, which currently has less than 75,000 full-time army soldiers. Russia has an estimated 1.1 million active servicemen.

State TV anchor Yevgeny Kiselyov used his flagship show this month to quip that the entire British army could fit into London’s Wembley football stadium.

Reporting by Andrew Osborn in London;Additional reporting by Guy Faulconbridge in Moscow; Writing by Andrew Osborn; Editing by Daniel Flynn and Frank Jack Daniel