Political tensions over immigration have been on the rise in recent years as far-right, anti-immigrant parties have helped drive the issue to near the top of the political agenda while making headway in countries including the U.S., Germany and Britain

International News via Reuters:

Wealthy nations with the highest rate of immigration over the past 35 years reaped a large economic benefit and many could still absorb more workers, according to research to be presented at a top European Central Bank conference next week.

Political tensions over immigration have been on the rise in recent years as far-right, anti-immigrant parties have helped drive the issue to near the top of the political agenda while making headway in countries including the U.S., Germany and Britain.

The study, which looked at data in dozens of rich countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, said growth and productivity were both likely to have been boosted sharply by the influx of immigrants, most of whom were highly skilled, despite any political claims to the contrary.

“Receiving countries’ labour productivity grew significantly during and after periods of higher immigration rates,” said the paper, authored by University of California, Davis professor Giovanni Peri.

“The predictive coefficients are often significant, economically large and a significant portion of such growth in GDP per worker is realized through strong growth in investments,” the paper to be presented at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra said.

PRODUCTIVITY GAINS

The total number of immigrants arriving in OECD countries from outside the bloc increased to about 100 million in 2024 from about 25 million in 1990, while native population growth turned negative in many countries.

Peri and his co-authors found that an increase of immigrants equal to 1% of a country’s population is associated with an increase in growth of GDP per worker — a measure of productivity — of 1.2% within five years and 1.9% over 10 years.

The findings are especially relevant for the European Union, where the natural change of population has been negative since 2015 and the drop accelerated after the COVID-19 pandemic.

The study concluded that as much as one third of economic growth per worker in countries including Spain, Italy or Britain may have been generated by immigration between 1990 and 2024.

In Spain, the share of immigrants increased by 15 percentage points of the adult population from 1990 to 2024, a change that could result in a 28% higher growth of GDP per worker.

Actual GDP per worker grew by about 75% in this period, suggesting that up to one third of the increase could be associated with the inflow of immigrants, the paper said.

In the UK, the number of immigrants as a share of the total population rose by 10 percentage points, suggesting that immigration accounted for about 19% of GDP per person growth out of the total 60% increase, the paper said.

The benefits from immigration do not fade as inflows rise, the paper found. The experience of Canada and Australia, which have large foreign-born populations, suggests there is room to absorb more workers without sacrificing the positive response of productivity and investment, it said.

Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Aidan Lewis

A magnitude 7.2 earthquake hit about 160 km (100 miles) west of Caracas on Wednesday afternoon, followed less than a minute later by a magnitude 7.5 tremor, according to the U.S. Geological Survey

International News via Reuters:

Thousands of Venezuelans were feared dead on Thursday after two powerful earthquakes wreaked havoc in and around the capital Caracas, trapping people beneath the rubble of collapsed buildings and setting off powerful aftershocks.

A magnitude 7.2 earthquake hit about 160 km (100 miles) west of Caracas on Wednesday afternoon, followed less than a minute later by a magnitude 7.5 tremor, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Emergency workers scrambled over the debris of collapsed buildings in Caracas as night fell, while distraught relatives sought help for loved ones feared trapped. Dazed survivors were taken away, some on stretchers.

“When we went downstairs, the scene was like a horror movie,” said Maria Alejandra, a resident from a nearby building, who did not give her surname.

“We had to climb over the rubble and everything. The building superintendent with the baby and all the neighbors coming down. But from that building, I only saw that one family got out.”

Interim President Delcy Rodriguez said at least 164 people were confirmed dead. The initial toll did not include those from worst-affected La Guaira state, near Caracas and home to the city’s airport, where witnesses’ footage showed scenes of panic as ceilings came down.

“Dozens of buildings have collapsed, and we are currently carrying out very intense rescue efforts to save as many lives as God allows us to save,” she said on state television just before 1 a.m. local time (0500 GMT) on Thursday.

“La Guaira state is a true tragedy, and has become a disaster zone.”

The U.S. Geological Survey, using predictive modeling to estimate the death toll, said it would most likely run into the thousands, with a substantial probability of exceeding 10,000.

A website set up to track missing people and posted on X by leaders from the country’s opposition, many of whom are outside the country, listed more than 10,000 people as unaccounted for at 5.40 a.m. local time (0940 GMT).

Many Venezuelans were at home when the quakes struck during a public holiday.

“There was a very loud crash. Things fell in the house, jugs inside the refrigerator. I’ve never experienced anything like it,” said Coro Martinez, 56, who lives in eastern Caracas.

TRUMP OFFERS HELP

Aftershocks rattled Caracas into the early hours of Thursday.

Rodriguez said the country was focused on rescue efforts, including the arrival in the coming hours of rescue crews from other countries, as she thanked leaders including U.S. President Donald Trump.

Trump said in a social media post that the U.S. was ready, willing and able to help in the disaster.

“The two major earthquakes that just hit the great people of Venezuela are both massive in scale and have left a devastating number of deaths,” said Trump, who ordered the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a violent raid in January.

The U.N.’s Venezuela human rights mission urged the government to lift local restrictions on social media, saying it was a “matter of life and death”. In some areas, access had already become available as authorities struggled to cope in a country weighed down by years of economic mismanagement.

RESIDENTS RUSH INTO THE STREETS

Wilmer Azuaje, a former Venezuelan lawmaker, captured the moment the quake hit Maiquetia Airport, sending masonry and clouds of dust falling.

“Everyone, the situation we’re experiencing here is serious. A high-magnitude earthquake. Look at how everything ended up,” he said while videoing the scene.

Rodriguez said the airport had been closed, complicating the rescue effort.

Residents across Caracas, which was also hit by a deadly magnitude 6.3 earthquake in 1967, rushed to evacuate as buildings shook.

“As soon as it started, we began hearing people screaming,” said Astrid Ramirez, a 41-year-old publicist in western Caracas. “Everyone was running down the stairs.”

Maria Romero, an 80-year-old pensioner in southern Caracas, said police helped her get out of her home. “This earthquake was horrible, even worse than the one in 1967,” she said.

Another resident, a 41-year-old office worker who declined to be named, said she received an earthquake alert on her phone just before the shaking intensified.

“As I picked it up and started listening to what it was saying, I first felt light shaking. Then, in less than two seconds, everything started moving.”

Leaders from countries including El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, Brazil and Spain offered support and sympathy. The U.S. State Department said it was in touch with Venezuelan authorities and mobilizing assistance.

Venezuela lies in a seismically active zone where the Caribbean Plate meets the South American Plate.

An estimated 30,000 people were killed when a quake caused widespread destruction in Merida and Caracas in 1812, according to the USGS.

HOSPITALS BRACE FOR THE INJURED

At Caracas’ Hospital de Clinicas, staff doubled up on the night shift to help treat the injured, a worker there said.

School classes were canceled for the rest of the week. The city’s stock exchange was closed and will be used to help rescue efforts.

The Venezuelan Red Cross said its headquarters had been critically damaged but that it had sent rescue teams to the worst-affected areas. France said its embassy was badly damaged.

Venezuela’s oil infrastructure did not immediately appear to have been affected. Civil protection authorities in Maracaibo, near the large oil hub of Lake Maracaibo, said no injuries were reported. A worker at the El Palito refinery near Morón — the earthquake’s epicenter — said there was no damage there.

UK oil firm Shell, which is evaluating developing gas fields in Venezuela, said all its employees were accounted for with no injuries.

One source said an extended loss of power could hit crude output levels. Venezuela’s oil ministry, state-run oil company PDVSA and its main foreign partner, Chevron, did not immediately reply to requests for comment.

Reporting by Vivian Sequera and Mayela Armas in Caracas; Additional reporting by Deisy Buitrago, Aida Pelaez-Fernandez and Reuters TV in Caracas, Tibisay Romero in Valencia, Venezuela, Keren Torres in Barquisimeto, Venezuela, Tathiana Ortiz in San Cristobal, Venezuela, Mariela Nava in Maracaibo, Venezuela, Marianna Parraga and Sheila Dang in Houston, Fabian Cambero in Santiago, Ana Isabel Martinez in Mexico City and Emma Farge in Geneva and John Irish in Paris; Writing by Kylie Madry and Julia Symmes Cobb; Editing by Daina Beth Solomon, Lincoln Feast, Raju Gopalakrishnan, Philippa Fletcher

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told a forum that flows through the Strait of Hormuz were close to those before the start of the Iran war, with at least 20 million barrels having exited the strait in the last 24 hours

International News via Reuters:

Oil prices fell on Thursday to levels last seen before the start of the Iran war as expectations of rising supply from the Middle East outweighed demand concerns. 

Prompt-month Brent crude futures for August delivery were down $1.08, or 1.46%, to $72.66 a barrel by 0952 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate lost 84 cents, or 1.19%, to $69.50 a barrel.

Both contracts hit their lowest since February 27. 

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told a forum that flows through the Strait of Hormuz were close to those before the start of the Iran war, with at least 20 million barrels having exited the strait in the last 24 hours.

A return to complete normalcy would take a few weeks, however, because the strait needs to be demined, he added.

“Most of the increase in flows from the Gulf is outbound —ships exiting the Strait,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

However, a significant increase in inbound flows requires shipping confidence to return, including safety assurances and mine clearance to allow insurance premiums to normalise, Staunovo said. 

Rising Middle Eastern supply, together with Iran set to boost sales after a temporary reprieve from U.S. sanctions, drove down prices of physical crude oil cargoes around the world.

Goldman Sachs said it does not expect a large pick‑up in Iranian production, even if sanctions relief extends beyond the August 21 expiry.

On the demand side, China is likely to remain the main buyer of Iranian crude, as EU and UK sanctions on Iranian oil and vessels remain in place, the bank added.

An accord agreed last week to end the U.S.-Israeli war, which began on February 28, has allowed the resumption of traffic through the strait. 

It set up a 60-day period of negotiations to tackle tougher issues, such as Iran’s nuclear programme. Wright said oil would continue to flow through the strait even if the deal did not hold, and that Iran would not be able to close it again.

UBS lowered its Brent price forecasts to $85 per barrel for end-September and end-December, and $80 per barrel for end-March and end-June 2027.

Meanwhile, Iraq will consider all available options if its OPEC quota is not significantly increased and has weighed leaving the producer group, sources with knowledge of Iraqi oil policy told Reuters.

The prospect of Iraq considering an exit from OPEC follows the surprise exit of the United Arab Emirates this year. Iraq is one of five founding members and the group was formed in the Iraqi capital.

On the geopolitical front, Ukraine’s military hit an oil depot in Russia’s Krasnodar region and two oil refineries in the Ufa region, 1,500 km (932 miles) from the Ukrainian border, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday.

Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru, Colleen Howe in Beijing and Siyi Liu in Singapore; editing by Jacqueline Wong, Jason Neely, Alexandra Hudson