Seoul’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) said North Korea had not sent weapons or supplies so far to Iran since the conflict started on February 28

International News via Reuters:

North Korea appears to be distancing itself from longtime partner Iran and carefully managing its public messaging to preserve the possibility of a new relationship with the U.S. after the Iran war, South Korean lawmakers said on Monday, citing the spy agency.

Seoul’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) said North Korea had not sent weapons or supplies so far to Iran since the conflict started on February 28, and did not issue public condolences upon the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in air strikes, said lawmaker Park Sun-won who attended a closed-door briefing held by the NIS.

Pyongyang also sent no congratulatory message when Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was selected as the new supreme leader, Park said, citing the NIS.

While China and Russia had frequently issued statements on the conflict, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry had only issued two toned-down statements so far, consistent, the NIS said, with North Korea’s recent tendency to avoid direct criticism of U.S. President Donald Trump.

The NIS assessed this restraint as preparation to secure new diplomatic space after an anticipated May summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump, the lawmaker said.

North Korea was also facing significant economic strain related to the Middle East crisis, with disruptions to the procurement of industrial supplies, rising prices, and a surging exchange rate, the NIS told lawmakers.

North Korea was also trying to secure Russian oil supplies, the NIS said.

At North Korea’s Ninth Workers’ Party Congress in late February, Kim appeared to leave an opening for talks with Washington, saying there was no reason the countries “cannot get along well,” if the U.S. recognised North Korea’s status as a nuclear state and withdrew its hostile policy.

The NIS assessed Kim had made the remarks in his own voice as a deliberate signal, aimed at keeping relations with Trump in good standing and positioning Pyongyang for a new diplomatic chapter once the Middle East conflict subsides, Park said.

Reporting by Jack Kim and Joyce LeeEditing by Ed Davies

Europe is typically the largest importer of U.S. crude, but competition has escalated with Asian buyers scouring for supply from the Americas to Africa and Europe to replace Middle Eastern oil

International News via Reuters:

Spot premiums for U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude have jumped to all-time highs as competition between Asian and European refiners for supply heats up to replace Middle Eastern oil flows disrupted by the Iran war, industry sources said.

Europe is typically the largest importer of U.S. crude, but competition has escalated with Asian buyers scouring for supply from the Americas to Africa and Europe to replace Middle Eastern oil that is unable to move through the Strait of Hormuz.

The jump in crude prices is driving up costs and widening losses for refiners on both continents, sources and analysts said, putting severe pressure on companies including state-owned firms that are required by governments to keep producing fuel for national security.

“Asian refiners, shut out of Middle Eastern supply, are bidding aggressively for every available Atlantic Basin barrel,” said Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, chief oil analyst at Rystad Energy, in a note dated April 3.

‘EVERY DAY THERE’S A NEW PRICE’

Offers for WTI Midland crude delivered to North Asia in July on very large crude carriers had premiums of $30 to $40 a barrel, depending on the benchmark used, traders said.

One trader pegged the premium at $34 a barrel to Dubai quotes while another put it at $30 a barrel above dated Brent. Two others said offers have gone closer to $40 a barrel above an August ICE Brent basis.

Those levels are up from premiums of close to $20 a barrel for deals concluded in late March and early April, when Japanese refiners including Taiyo Oil purchased WTI crude, traders said.

“Every day there’s a new price,” one of the traders said, adding that Asian refiners face severe losses from the premiums.

Another trader said refiners would be better off reducing crude runs and buying products – if anyone is offering.

Spot premiums jumped after the prompt monthly spread for WTI futures hit its widest backwardation on Thursday. Backwardation refers to when prompt prices are higher than those in future months.

Wider discounts on U.S. crude oil compared with global benchmark Brent have also spurred demand for tankers on the U.S. Gulf Coast, reducing vessel availability in the region and driving up freight rates.

In Europe, bids for WTI Midland delivered to the continent climbed to a record premium of close to $15 a barrel against dated Brent on Thursday. [CRU/E]

“At current physical differentials and freight rates, European refiners buying spot crude cannot make money running those barrels through their systems,” Rodriguez-Masiu said.

Reporting by Florence Tan and Siyi Liu in Singapore; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus

If the energy price spike proves to be temporary, the need for a monetary policy adjustment will be limited ECB Governing Council member Stournaras told an annual shareholders meeting of the Greek central bank

International News via Reuters:

European Central Bank policymaker Yannis Stournaras said on Monday that the appropriate euro zone monetary policy will depend on the size and nature of energy supply disruption from the Iran conflict.

If the energy price spike proves to be temporary, the need for a monetary policy adjustment will be limited, ECB Governing Council member Stournaras, who is also governor of the Bank of Greece, told an annual shareholders meeting of the Greek central bank in Athens.

He added that a tighter monetary policy stance would be expected if the pressure from rising energy prices prove to be stronger and more persistent, affecting medium-term inflation expectations and wage developments.

Reporting by Angeliki Koutantou; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne and Toby Chopra