…but we’ll still have to wait until after 2026 census for accurate population numbers
A census every 5 years, augmented by more accurate emigration statistics – that’s what Minister Jason Hayward wants to keep track of our population numbers.
However, current stats have come into question from the Opposition and local business leaders, and the economic impact of our aging and shrinking population is widely acknowledged.
With the next census in 2026, our next accurate figure may not come until a year later. is that too long to wait?
Changes to the number of people living in Bermuda have not been accurately monitored.
The Premier has acknowledged this, and Labor and Economy Minister Jason Hayward says the future will be different.
He says, “we’re not going to go through another decade of not having a firm grasp on who is actually leaving Bermuda on an annual basis.”
However, the OBA has criticised the PLP’s response to an apparent population decline since the 2016 census. In the Budget Reply, Shadow Finance Minister Dr. Douglas De Couto said, “we in the Opposition have seen no realistic, credible, or effective strategy from the Government that will address the shrinking population with the urgency and impact required.”
The Chamber of Commerce economics division recently estimated a 10% population drop since 2016 – or at least 7-thousand fewer people in Bermuda.
Minister Jason Hayward questioned that number, as the workforce has not diminished by such a degree, and there is a housing shortage.
All the same, our current population data is in question. Premier David Burt last week conceded that present projections may not be dependable.
Speaking at the Budget Breakfast, he said, “right now we only in the population estimates put out measure births and deaths. We know that is not an accurate measure of population”.
The Premier added that the new border management system, monitoring arrivals and departures, will help provide more reliable ongoing population estimates once the 2026 census provides a new baseline.
Minister Jason Hayward also wants that baseline set more regularly. He says, “another thing that would help us is to have a census every five years rather than ten years… in terms of having more timely and relevant information, which allows us to make better policy decisions.”
Nevertheless, based on the past, we could have more than a two-and-a-half-year wait for a new population baseline. Preliminary figures from the 2016 census were not released until January 2018.
Gary Foster Skelton questioned Minister Hayward on this point…
GFS: “Is this population issue being taken seriously enough? If we had shrunk by 10% or even 5%, it would have a notable impact on the cost of living – the price of groceries, health care premiums… is it worth considering bringing the census forward?”
Hayward: “Government has taken the population and the movement and our population very seriously – embarking on a study to determine why people are leaving, and working towards policy solutions that will entice people to come back to Bermuda. I put out a complete policy paper as it pertains to how we plan to retain our local workforce.”
GFS: “One of the reasons why I ask, ‘do you need to consider bringing forward the census’… if you take a census, and it shows that the population hasn’t changed substantially, you have your response there to those who say otherwise. But if you do not take such an action, and then when we finally get the numbers and we see there has been a substantial exodus, then couldn’t it end up being part of the legacy of the PLP government that people were making these warnings about the population issue, and you did not respond?”
Hayward: “It would be inaccurate to say that we haven’t responded. We have changed our immigration policy. We have introduced PRCs and allow for persons to remain after being there for 20 years. That didn’t exist prior to a policy change of this government… We’ve put out policy papers that have informed the public that if we don’t address this issue we’re going to have severe economic challenges… we have framed it under the context of our aging population… we’re working towards increasing the amount of workers because we know that we’re going to need this workforce to power our economy and support our aging population.”
In a subsequent report, Minister Jason Hayward provides some insight into the feedback they have received from Bermudians who have left the island or are considering leaving.
He says those issues must be addressed as part of any plan to retain and regain the local population.
