The price moves on Monday were dwarfed by an 11% surge for WTI and an 8% rise for Brent during the previous trading session on Thursday, the biggest absolute price increase since 2020

International News via Reuters:

Oil prices retreated in choppy trade on Monday, as investors awaited clarity on the status of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran, wary about sustained supply losses due to shipping disruptions.

Brent crude futures were down 0.22% to $108.79 a barrel at 11:49 a.m. CDT (1649 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were trading down 0.08% to $111.45 per barrel.

The price moves on Monday were dwarfed by an 11% surge for WTI and an 8% rise for Brent during the previous trading session on Thursday, the biggest absolute price increase since 2020.

The U.S. and Iran received a plan framework to end hostilities, but Iran rejected immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz, after President Donald Trump threatened to rain “hell” on Tehran if it did not make a deal by the end of Tuesday.

Iran also said it had formulated its positions and demands in response to recent ceasefire proposals conveyed via intermediaries.

“It’s a very fluid situation with peace plans being put out there,” said John Kilduff, a partner with Again Capital. “The rhetoric out of Iran seems to reject a ceasefire proposal, but they are allowing more ships through the Strait of Hormuz.”

The strait, which carries oil and petroleum products from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, remains largely closed due to Iranian attacks on shipping after the war began on February 28.

Some vessels, however, including an Omani-operated tanker, a French-owned container ship and a Japanese-owned gas carrier, have passed through the strait since Thursday, shipping data showed, reflecting Iran’s policy to allow passage for vessels from countries it deems friendly.

“The market is trying to realise what to expect going forward. The most important headline this weekend has been that some ships passed through the strait,” said SEB Research analyst Ole Hvalbye.

Hvalbye also highlighted that Europe continued to lose physical barrels and products to Asia due to the market tightening. 

SEEKING ALTERNATIVE SOURCES 

The Middle East supply disruptions have led to refiners seeking alternative sources for crude, particularly for physical cargoes in the U.S. and Britain’s North Sea. Spot premiums for U.S. WTI crude have jumped to all-time highs on competition between Asian and European refiners.

Indian refiners have also postponed maintenance shutdowns of their units to meet local fuel demand.

On Sunday, OPEC+, consisting of some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, agreed to a modest rise of 206,000 barrels per day for May. 

“OPEC movements look to be challenged based on export availability,” said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah.

Saudi Arabia also set the official selling price of May Arab Light crude oil to Asia at a record premium of $19.50 a barrel above the Oman/Dubai average, an increase of $17 from the previous month, Aramco said.

Russian supply has been disrupted recently by Ukrainian drone attacks on its Baltic Sea export terminals. Media reports on Sunday said its Ust-Luga terminal resumed loadings on Saturday after days of disruptions.

Exports from the Black Sea port of Tuapse are set to rise to 794,000 metric tons in April, up 8.7% on a daily basis from 755,000 metric tons planned for March, according to two traders and Reuters calculations.

Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston, Seher Dareen in London, Katya Golubkova in Tokyo and Sudarshan Varadhan in Singapore; Editing by Keith Weir, Ros Russell, Janane Venkatraman, Rod Nickel

The NIS said the imagery of the daughter driving a tank was intended to highlight her supposed military aptitude and dispel doubts over a female heir, lawmakers said

International News via Reuters:

South Korea’s spy agency now believes North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s teenage daughter has been positioned as his successor, lawmakers said on Monday, citing a recent public display of her driving a tank that was likely intended to dispel any doubts.

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) told lawmakers its assessment was not based on circumstantial inference but on what it described as “credible intelligence” collected by the agency, according to briefings by ruling and opposition party members after a closed-door parliamentary meeting.

The NIS said the imagery of the daughter driving a tank was intended to highlight her supposed military aptitude and dispel doubts over a female heir, lawmakers said.

North Korea’s state‑run media KCNA last month published photos of Kim and his daughter driving a new tank, following earlier images showing her firing a rifle at a shooting range and using a handgun.

Such scenes are intended to pay “homage” to Kim’s own public military appearances during the early 2010s when he was being prepared to succeed his own father, ruling Democratic Party lawmaker Park Sun-won said.

The latest assessment of Kim’s daughter, who is believed to be around 13 and to be named Ju Ae, is a progression from earlier analysis by the spy agency which said she was likely being groomed to succeed her father.

Ju Ae’s repeated presence at defence‑related events is aimed at easing doubts over a female successor and accelerating the construction of a succession narrative, the lawmakers said, citing the NIS.

Lawmakers have previously said the agency believes her increasingly prominent role suggests she is already being treated as the de facto second‑highest figure in the North’s leadership.

People Power Party lawmaker Lee Seong-kweun said the NIS noted that suggestions Kim’s younger sister Kim Yo Jong might be unhappy about the focus on Ju Ae were misplaced, as Kim Yo Jong does not hold independent power.

Some North Korea experts, however, urged caution in interpreting the images as definitive succession signals.

Hong Min, an analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said Ju Ae’s tank appearance alone was insufficient to conclude she had been confirmed as Kim’s heir, noting she appeared alongside her father rather than independently, unlike Kim Jong Un’s own solo military appearances during his grooming phase.

Reporting by Kyu-seok ShimEditing by Ed Davies

Analysts said the April 5 attack on the ship added to risks to global food security and agricultural trade stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war against Iran

International News via Reuters:

A Russian ship carrying wheat that was believed to have sunk in the Sea of Azov after a Ukrainian drone attack has been found and towed to shore, while the death toll from the attack has risen to three, state news agency TASS said on Monday.

Analysts said the April 5 attack on the ship added to risks to global food security and agricultural trade stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.

Russian media said the vessel was carrying wheat from the Port of Azov, near the city of Rostov, to Port Kavkaz in the strait separating the Crimean peninsula from mainland Russia, where the grain is usually loaded onto larger vessels for export.

TASS quoted emergency services as saying the vessel, which was gutted by fire and began to sink, was towed to the village of Kuchugury in Russia’s Krasnodar region. A video posted by the news agency showed the vessel engulfed in flames and smoke. The agency said two badly burned bodies were found aboard the ship, bringing the death toll to three. An aide to the vessel’s captain had earlier been reported dead.

Public ship databases list Volgo-Balt 138-class vessels at about 3,165 tons deadweight.

Grain consultancy Sovecon earlier described the incident as the first known sinking of a grain-loaded ship in the Black Sea-Azov basin, a major grain-trading route, since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022.

“Against the backdrop of Iran’s conflict and the effective paralysis of diplomacy among Washington, Moscow and Kyiv, the risk of further escalation in the region appears to have increased significantly,” Sovecon head Andrey Sizov said.

Reporting by Gleb BryanskiEditing by Rod Nickel

Iran’s response consists of ten clauses, including an end to conflicts in the region, a protocol for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, lifting of sanctions, and reconstruction, the agency added

International News via Reuters:

Iran has conveyed its response to the U.S. proposal for ending the war to Pakistan, rejecting a ceasefire and emphasizing the necessity of a permanent end to the war, the official IRNA news agency said on Monday.

Iran’s response consists of ten clauses, including an end to conflicts in the region, a protocol for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, lifting of sanctions, and reconstruction, the agency added.

Reporting by Menna Alaa El Din; Editing by Toby Chopra

The criticism came after five EU countries, including Spain, put forward the proposal to tax excess profits earned amid energy price hikes triggered by the Iran war

International News via Reuters:

Spain’s wind industry association AEE warned on Monday that a proposed windfall tax on energy firms’ profits could curb investment in renewable energy just as Europe seeks to cut its reliance on fossil fuels.

The criticism came after five EU countries, including Spain, put forward the proposal to tax excess profits earned amid energy price hikes triggered by the Iran war.

Reuters exclusively reported on Saturday that the finance ministers of Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Austria jointly called for an EU-wide tax in a letter to the European Commission, saying the measure could help fund relief for consumers hit by high energy prices.

According to the AEE, renewable energy, particularly wind, has proven to be the most effective mechanism for keeping prices in check in Spain, one of Europe’s leaders in the use of eolic power.

“Proposing new potential taxes that affect the electricity sector creates legal uncertainty and deters investors, precisely at a time when it is more necessary than ever to invest in technologies such as wind power as a substitute for imported fossil fuels,” it said in a statement. 

The AEE has more than 350 members including power utilities Iberdrola, Endesa, Acciona, Portugal’s energy firm Galp, as well as developers, wind turbine manufacturers, consultants, financial institutions and insurers.

Reporting by Emma Pinedo, editing by Andrei Khalip and Ros Russell