The judge in Ankara adjourned the case concerning the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and its chairman, Ozgur Ozel, until October 24

International News via Reuters:

A Turkish court delayed a decision on Monday whether to oust the main opposition leader and annul his party’s 2023 congress over alleged irregularities, in a case that has already deepened the country’s political crisis.

The judge in Ankara adjourned the case concerning the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and its chairman, Ozgur Ozel, until October 24.

Hundreds of CHP members, including President Tayyip Erdogan’s main political rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, have been jailed pending trial in a separate, sprawling legal probe into alleged graft and terrorism links.

If the court rules next month to annul the CHP’s congress, that would strip Ozel – the party’s combative, hoarse-voiced chair who has risen to prominence since Imamoglu’s arrest – of the title that he won there.

CASE HAS SPURRED OPPOSITION DISARRAY, STREET PROTESTS

The case is seen as a test of Turkey’s shaky balance between democracy and autocracy. It threatens to deepen disarray and infighting in the opposition camp, boosting Erdogan’s chances of extending his 22-year rule.

The court rejected plaintiff requests to suspend Ozel, 50, and his administration pending a verdict, and it ordered the CHP and election boards to submit information on planned CHP general and Istanbul congresses next week, once they are done.

The centrist CHP denies the charges against it and is level with Erdogan’s Islamist-rooted, conservative AK Party (AKP) in opinion polls.

Anti-Erdogan street protests flared in recent days ahead of Monday’s court ruling, and the case has badly rattled Turkish assets. The lira, stocks and bonds strengthened after Monday’s adjournment decision.

The opposition, human rights groups and some European leaders say the crackdown on the CHP is politically motivated and anti-democratic, charges rejected by the government, which says that Turkey’s judiciary is independent.

“This is a serious moment that signals a regime change in Turkey from a competitive authoritarianism, in which opposition parties could still win elections, to a kind of hegemonic authoritarianism, in which they are more symbolic and unable to win,” said Seren Selvin Korkmaz, co-founder and co-director of IstanPol Institute, an Istanbul-based think tank.

CRITICS SEE TURKEY SLIDING TOWARDS AUTOCRACY

The legal crackdown on CHP, which began in October last year, has sharpened concerns over what critics call Turkey’s slide towards autocracy, as the courts, the army, media, the central bank and other formerly more independent institutions have bent to Erdogan’s will during his 22-year reign.

Government officials and some analysts say last year’s local elections – in which the CHP swept most major cities in the biggest ever defeat for Erdogan’s AKP – showed that NATO member Turkey remains a vibrant democracy, despite critics’ concerns.

If the court cancels the congress and ousts Ozel, it could name a trustee to run the party or reinstate former chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu, whom Erdogan defeated in a 2023 election and who has since lost much trust within the CHP.

It could also throw out the case, which was brought by a disgruntled CHP member.

A CHP lawyer told the court on Monday it lacked jurisdiction in the case, arguing that only Turkey’s Supreme Election Board can adjudicate on party congress elections.

Turkish markets, on edge over rule of law concerns in the major emerging market economy, crashed in March when Imamoglu was jailed pending trial. The central bank briefly reversed a cycle of interest rate cuts to counter the turmoil.

“Uncertainties have merely been extended,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, of Swissquote. “The worst-case scenario has been avoided, yet foreign investors’ perception of Turkey’s policy environment and investment outlook remains unchanged.”

Additional reporting and writing by Jonathan Spicer; Editing by Daren Butler, Clarence Fernandez and Gareth Jones

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International News via Reuters:

France’s political instability could hold back growth in the euro zone’s second-biggest economy by pushing consumers and businesses into retrenchment mode, the central bank said on Monday in a quarterly outlook.

This year the economy is on course to grow slightly better than expected a few months ago, but only because companies built up inventories in the first half and exports are expected to pick up in the third quarter.

The Bank of France forecast the economy would therefore grow 0.7% this year, raising its estimate from 0.6% in June. The INSEE statistics agency forecast 0.8% last week.

But after this year, the economy would regain momentum more slowly than expected in June as the re-emergence of political turmoil in recent weeks makes the outlook for spending cuts and tax increases highly uncertain.

The economy was now seen growing 0.9% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027, the central bank said, trimming its forecasts from 1% and 1.2% respectively, due not only to political uncertainty but also less favourable international conditions, including a stronger euro and higher oil prices.

“The risks surrounding our growth forecast are tilted to the downside after 2025. Uncertainty about fiscal policy in 2026 could reinforce wait-and-see behaviour among businesses and households,” the Bank of France said.

French inflation is expected to remain below 2% through 2027, among the lowest in the euro zone. It is seen averaging only 1% this year, before edging up to 1.3% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.

The unemployment rate is expected to hover close to its current level of 7.5%.

Reporting by Leigh Thomas; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise

The move comes as delegations grow increasingly concerned about the cost of accommodation in the coastal Amazon city of Belem hosting COP30

International News via Reuters:

High hotel prices for Brazil’s COP30 climate summit in November have prompted the United Nations to urge its staff to limit attendance, while government delegations are still scrambling to find rooms within their budgets.

The move comes as delegations grow increasingly concerned about the cost of accommodation in the coastal Amazon city of Belem hosting COP30. Brazil is working to nearly double available hotel beds, but soaring prices for accommodation have stoked calls from some governments to relocate the conference, which Brazilian officials have rejected.

“In view of the capacity constraints in Belem, I would like to kindly request that heads of United Nations system, specialized agencies and other relevant organizations review the size of their delegations at COP 30 and reduce numbers where possible,” the U.N. climate secretariat’s (UNFCCC) executive secretary Simon Stiell said in a document published on the UNFCCC website.

A spokesperson for Brazil’s COP30 presidency did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The UNFCCC did not issue such a request ahead of last year’s U.N. climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Nearly every government in the world will gather at the annual U.N. summit to negotiate efforts to curb climate change.

But developing countries have warned that they cannot afford Belem’s accommodation prices, which have soared amid a shortage of rooms.

At a meeting of countries’ representatives and U.N. officials last month, the UNFCCC asked Brazil to subsidise hotel prices to ensure rooms for $100 per day for delegates from the world’s poorest countries and $400-$500 per day for other countries, according to an official summary of that meeting, seen by Reuters.

Miriam Belchior, executive secretary to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s chief of staff, told journalists after the meeting that Brazil was already bearing significant costs for hosting COP30 and could not provide further subsidies. Brazil has offered poorer nations rooms capped at around $200 per night.

Countries’ representatives and U.N. officials are due to meet again this week to discuss the accommodation situation for COP30.

Reporting by Kate Abnett. Additional reporting by Lisandra Paraguassu. Editing by Mark Potter