Kenya is the fourth country to record a case linked to the Ebola epidemic in eastern Congo, the second largest on record with more than 8,000 cases

International News via Reuters:

Kenya confirmed its first Ebola case on Tuesday after a Kenyan citizen who had travelled from Democratic Republic of Congo died in Nairobi.

Kenya is the fourth country to record a case linked to the Ebola epidemic in eastern Congo, the second largest on record with more than 8,000 cases.

Uganda reported 20 cases and two deaths earlier in the year but was declared Ebola-free in August. A doctor who returned to France in June from Congo tested positive but there was no further spread of the virus.

The Kenyan patient, who had lived in Congo for seven years, had been ill for about a month before travelling by road from Congo to Uganda’s capital, Kampala, and then flying to Nairobi on Saturday, Kenya’s Health Minister Aden Duale told a news conference.

After arriving at Nairobi’s international airport, he passed through health screening and was later taken by a relative to Nairobi Hospital. He was admitted with fever, chills and bleeding beneath the skin and was quickly placed in isolation, Duale said.

He died late on Monday.

Eight of his family members and 21 healthcare workers who attended to him have been quarantined and are being monitored, Kenyan President William Ruto’s office said.

PATIENT BURIED UNDER HEALTH PROTOCOLS

The patient was buried under protocols designed to prevent further spread of the virus, Ruto’s office said.

Health authorities are trying to trace 23 passengers and four crew members who were on his Jambojet flight, Duale said. 

The health minister said Kenya had trained nearly 5,000 health workers across the country on prevention and management and the UN’s senior Ebola coordinator, Julien Harneis, told Reuters he expected a “solid health response” from Kenya to manage the disease.

The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said in a statement that it was immediately sending a high-level team to Kenya to provide support, adding that the case “underscores the importance of sustained preparedness across the region”.

World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on X that the WHO was supporting the Kenyan and Ugandan governments and recommended against any travel restrictions on countries affected by the outbreak.

Nevertheless, the incident raised questions about measures meant to prevent the spread of the virus across borders.  

Kenya’s health ministry director-general, Patrick Amoth, said the patient may have passed through airport screening because medication had masked his symptoms.

Uganda’s health ministry said screening teams observed he had a normal temperature at Entebbe airport.

It was also not clear how he had crossed from Congo into Uganda, given that the border has been closed since May. The Africa CDC said he spent a night in Uganda before boarding the flight to Kenya. 

Asked about this, Ugandan government spokesperson Alan Kasujja said in a text message: “Leave Uganda out of this conversation … We don’t have Ebola here.” 

KENYA HOSTS US EBOLA QUARANTINE FACILITY 

After the outbreak was declared in Congo, the United States built a 50-bed Ebola quarantine camp for US citizens on an air force base in central Kenya. 

The facility is currently empty and has only housed seven people. Kenyan officials have said it could receive Kenyans and other nationalities, but the US government has not confirmed that.

Ebola spreads through direct contact with the bodily fluids of infected people, whether living or dead. The disease can cause fever, vomiting, diarrhoea and, in severe cases, internal and external bleeding.

The outbreak in Congo was declared in mid-May but may have started months earlier. Caused by the rare Bundibugyo strain, it has been blamed for more than 4,000 deaths.

Reporting by Vincent Mumo Nzilani and Edwin Okoth in Nairobi. Additional reporting by Emma Farge in Geneva and Elias Biryabarema in Kampala, Writing by Aaron Ross, Editing by Alexander Winning, Mark Potter, Susan Fenton and Sanjeev Miglani

Georgieva did not indicate in her prepared remarks whether the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook would change the overall 2026 global growth forecast from the sluggish 3.0% rate forecast in July

International News via Reuters:

The global economy is under threat from persistently high energy prices, record public debt and risks from the AI investment boom, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned on Wednesday, urging governments to implement protective fiscal and monetary policy measures.  

In a speech previewing IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings next week in Bangkok, Georgieva said the world was being pulled in two directions — a negative energy supply shock from the Middle East conflicts and a positive demand shock from artificial intelligence that is also fuelling inflation.

“The combined impact of these two forces is highly uneven across the world,” Georgieva said, adding that the AI boom was bypassing many countries.

New IMF growth forecasts to be released during the Bangkok meetings will show the biggest growth downgrades will come in economies ravaged by war, Georgieva said. These include Ukraine, suffering significant damage to civilian and economic infrastructure, and Gulf countries hit by Iranian strikes and sharply reduced energy exports.  

Georgieva did not indicate in her prepared remarks whether the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook would change the overall 2026 global growth forecast from the sluggish 3.0% rate forecast in July.

That forecast, which predicted a rebound to 3.4% growth in 2027, assumed the Strait of Hormuz would start to reopen in mid-July and return to pre-war conditions by March 2027. It assumed oil prices would average $89 a barrel in 2026 and $78 a barrel in 2027.

Georgieva said oil prices remain at $100 a barrel, with impaired refining capacity adding another $100 in “crack-spread” margins per barrel for key products including diesel. The winter heating season will boost demand even as natural gas supplies remain restricted by threats to LNG shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, she added.

“Even if the war in the Gulf were to end soon, the problem of high energy prices will likely persist for some time,” Georgieva said, adding that Brent crude oil futures predict high oil prices through 2027.

Higher energy prices are pushing up inflation, policy rates and benchmark bond yields, she said, noting that US, German and Japanese 10-year sovereign yields are now at their highest levels since 2007, 2009 and 1996, respectively, and still climbing.

GROWING DEBT LOAD

Adding to the worries to be discussed by the IMF’s 191 member countries next week is a growing public debt burden that is sapping growth and adding inflationary pressures, Georgieva said. The IMF says public debt is at the highest level since World War Two and is projected to exceed 100% of GDP before 2030.

Georgieva singled out advanced economies, led by the United States, as the “worst offenders” on debt loads, with debt-to-GDP ratios higher than emerging markets and low income countries.

Policymakers can no longer rely on higher growth rates alone to solve fiscal problems, she said. 

“And yet we don’t see decisive action in the high-debt advanced economies where the need of the hour is for credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plans, supported in some cases by upfront fiscal measures, including to take some pressure off monetary policy,” she said. 

After five-and-a-half years of above-target inflation, Georgieva said inflationary pressures were persisting, from the AI build-out, energy and food price shocks, tariffs, higher defense spending and higher debt service costs.

“Now may be a good time for a prudently hawkish bias in many countries’ monetary policy,” Georgieva said, adding that rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of Japan were “highly appropriate.”

In a fireside chat following her speech, Georgieva added that the “most important task” for monetary policy in the current environment is to focus on price stability and for central banks to communicate their resolve in maintaining it.

“They can only do it when central banks are independent, and when central banks resist pressure that may come from the fiscal side to ease the burden by basically stepping up, buying debt, making it so that the situation from the fiscal side eases,” she said.

“I would call this monetary cowboys, running to the rescue of the fiscal agents, and my message is: please don’t.”

AI RISKS ABOUND

Georgieva highlighted other risks from AI, where investment as a share of GDP is likely to exceed that of railroads, the electricity grids or telecommunications infrastructure.

The rising economic and financial concentration puts pressure on AI companies to deliver productivity and earnings gains to justify lofty valuations, she said, warning that market disappointment could turn into “a far-reaching shock.”

But she said IMF research suggests that AI, done right, could add a half percentage point of extra world growth annually.

AI preparedness is key, she said, including regulatory guardrails that “help manage AI’s substantial perils, which include large-scale labor market fallout, serious cyber and stability risks and frontier models threatening to escape human control and run amok.”

In addition to building fiscal strength, even at difficult political costs, Georgieva said governments should take other steps to boost growth, including reforms that would develop improved workforce skills, make corporate startups and wind-downs easier, boost energy security and streamline regulations.  

Reporting by Rae Wee in Singapore ad David Lawder in Washington; Writing by David Lawder, Editing by Lincoln Feast

According to UNICEF data, obesity has surpassed being underweight as the most common form of malnutrition in school children and adolescents worldwide

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The World Health Organization on Wednesday recommended diet, exercise and counseling over popular weight-loss drugs in its first global guidelines addressing rising obesity among younger children.

According to UNICEF data, obesity has surpassed being underweight as the most common form of malnutrition in school children and adolescents worldwide.

The health agency said weight-loss drugs may be considered for adolescents aged 10 to 19 with obesity but only after supervised interventions have failed. Bariatric surgery could be considered for physically and mentally mature adolescents with severe obesity after six months of unsuccessful treatment, it said.

For children under 10, WHO endorsed diet, physical activity and combined behavioral support instead of obesity medication, surgery or devices because of doubts over their safety and long-term effectiveness.

Luz María De Regil, director of the Department of Nutrition and Food Safety, said there is currently insufficient evidence on GLP-1 drugs, though researchers are monitoring efficacy and safety trials and may revise that assessment as more data emerges.

“The foundation of obesity care for children and adolescents is not medicine or surgery, but access to comprehensive support that enables healthy eating, physical activity and sustainable behaviour change,” De Regil said.

Some GLP-1 medicines are already approved for weight-loss in younger patients. Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Saxenda can be used by certain adolescents 12 and older in the United States and the European Union. The EU also allows Saxenda for some children aged six to 11.

For children and adolescents with obesity, WHO strongly suggested tailored diets, physical activity and behavioral programs involving caregivers, with supervised digital support cited as optional.

Healthy diets and physical activity must also be accessible and affordable because treatment alone cannot halt rising obesity, WHO said.

About 400 million people aged 5 to 19 were overweight in 2024, including 170 million living with obesity, WHO said. Obesity prevalence in the group has quadrupled since 1990.

Reporting by Kunal Das and Christy Santhosh in Bengaluru; Editing by Pooja Desai

The moves highlight a new hierarchy in the ever-evolving rankings of European debt

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Traders have turned more discerning following a bond market rout, dumping the debt of European countries they deem the riskiest and rushing to safe-haven Germany.

The moves highlight a new hierarchy in the ever-evolving rankings of European debt.

France, once a beneficiary of a flight to safety, has been hit by selling. Previously shunned Italy and Britain are less exposed but still fragile, while Dutch and Swiss debt have rallied alongside Germany.

“We’ve seen bond vigilantes come out in force,” said Man Group Chief Market Strategist Kristina Hooper.

“They are punishing those countries that they do not believe are fiscally disciplined. We can see that in yields across Europe in the past week.”

FRANCE WOBBLES

France is at the centre of a storm on worries about the country’s large budget deficit and looming 2027 presidential election.

Its 10-year bond yield jumped 70 basis points (bps) in September and hit its highest since 2002. That is driving up borrowing costs and making the fiscal maths harder.

France said in September that the deficit will overshoot the government’s 5% target. The government has announced belt-tightening measures to bring some calm, but investors are sceptical that they can be carried out. Meanwhile, France plans to sell a record €340 billion ($381 billion) of bonds in 2027 to fund the government and refinance COVID-era debt.

The spread between French and German 10-year bond yields, a gauge of France’s risk premium, hit almost 160 bps last week, its highest since 2012. While the spread retreated somewhat earlier this week, it is widening again on Wednesday, in a move which many investors expect to continue.

The euro, hurt by the selloff, could weaken to $1.10, analysts say.

Still, the yield gap between Germany and other euro zone countries is far below peaks seen in the European debt crisis, when Italy’s spread topped 500 bps and Greece’s 3,000 bps.

ITALY UNDER PRESSURE

Investors worried about the sustainability of Italy’s public finances fear contagion from the France selloff.

Italy’s 10-year bond yield gap over Germany widened to 130 bps last week from 80 bps a month earlier.

Its bond market could come under more pressure should debt-related worries resurface.

Italy’s cabinet said last week its deficit is set to rise well above the European Union’s 3% ceiling and the country’s massive public debt will start to fall only in 2028. Its debt-to-GDP ratio, currently at 138.6%, is expected to overtake Greece’s this year as the highest in the bloc.

TS Lombard European and global macro director Davide Oneglia said he was also watching politics in Italy, which holds an election next year and could face uncertainty.

The Greek/German bond-yield spread, meanwhile, has hit its highest level in two years, while the Belgian 10-year yield rose 49 bps in September, more than most peers bar France.

BRITAIN, SPAIN DODGE WORST

Previously pressured bond markets in Britain and Spain have dodged the worst of the recent drama.

The turmoil in Britain’s gilt market in 2022 around then Prime Minister Liz Truss’ “mini-budget” has become a case study of how high debt levels can spook bond investors. Gilts underperformed in subsequent global selloffs.

But the 10-year gilt yield rose 36 bps in September to around 5.43%. That was around half the move in France.

Investors are less nervous about an October UK budget, but will be looking for reassurance on fiscal discipline as well as plans to boost long-term economic growth.

Spanish debt was once among the least favoured in the euro zone, but strong economic growth in recent years has driven a rally in its bonds. Its 10-year yield is now 75 bps below France’s; it was 500 bps above during the 2012 euro zone crisis.

Investors say Spain is a test of how much worries about France infect other markets.

“Full-on contagion would involve … a more pronounced widening in other European sovereign spreads, including those of countries with stronger fundamentals, such as Spain and Portugal,” said Jeff Mueller, co-head of fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

INVESTOR DARLINGS

Germany is back as Europe’s safe haven. Recent fears it might lose that status due to higher spending on infrastructure and defence have proved overdone for now.

The German 10-year Bund yield fell 17 bps last week, even as France’s jumped 13, as investors sought safety.

Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, for example, said on Tuesday it recently sold some French bonds in favour of German and Japanese debt, describing the decision to buy German bonds as a “flight-to-quality move”.

The debt of other low-debt European countries also rallied last week. Dutch yields fell 11 bps, the Swiss, 12, and the Swedish, 14.

($1 = 0.8929 euros)

Reporting by Alun John, Harry Robertson and Sara Rossi; editing by Dhara Ranasinghe and Xevi Fontdegloria