The global oil market may be tighter than it appears

International News via Reuters:

Oil prices rose about 2% on Friday as investors weighed a tight short-term market against a potential large surplus this year forecast by the IEA, while U.S. tariffs and possible further sanctions on Russia were also in focus.

Brent crude futures were up $1.35, or 2%, at $69.99 a barrel by 10:48 a.m. EDT (1458 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.49, or 2.2%, to $68.06 a barrel.

At those levels, Brent was headed for a 2.5% gain on the week, while WTI was up around 1.6% from last week’s close.

The IEA said on Friday the global oil market may be tighter than it appears, with demand supported by peak summer refinery runs to meet travel and power generation.

Front-month September Brent contracts were trading at a $1.18 premium to October futures at 10:48 a.m. EDT.

“Crude values are supported by perceptions of a major tightening in the balances with the continued steep spread curves offering explanation in this regard,” analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

The short-term market tightness notwithstanding, the IEA boosted its forecast for supply growth this year, while trimming its outlook for growth in demand, implying a market in surplus.

“OPEC+ will quickly and significantly turn up the oil tap. There is a threat of significant oversupply. In the short term, however, oil prices remain supported,” Commerzbank analysts said in a note, referring to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia.

Further adding support to the short-term outlook, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday that Russia will compensate for overproduction against its OPEC+ quota this year in the August-September period.

One other sign of robust short-term oil demand was the prospect of Saudi Arabia shipping about 51 million barrels of crude oil in August to China, the biggest such shipment in more than two years.

On a longer-term basis, however, OPEC cut its forecasts for global oil demand in the 2026-2029 period because of slowing Chinese demand, the group said on Thursday in its 2025 World Oil Outlook.

Both benchmark futures contracts lost more than 2% on Thursday as investors worried about the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s evolving tariff policy on global economic growth and oil demand.

“Prices have recouped some of this decline after President Trump said he plans to make a ‘major’ statement on Russia on Monday. This could leave the market nervous over the potential for further sanctions on Russia,” ING analysts wrote in a client note.

Trump has expressed frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin due to the lack of progress in ending the war in Ukraine and Russia’s intensifying bombardment of Ukrainian cities.

The European Commission is set to propose a floating Russian oil price cap this week as part of a new draft sanctions package, but Russia said it has “good experience” of tackling and minimizing such challenges.

Reporting by Stephanie Kelly in New York, Robert Harvey in London, Colleen Howe in Beijing and Siyi Liu in Singapore; Editing by Edwina Gibbs, Mark Potter, Elaine Hardcastle and Paul Simao

Most of the dogs are rescued from shelters

International News via Reuters:

With tail wagging, tongue out and ears perked, Hummer – a young mixed breed dog with a slick black coat – sits down in front of a sample of screwworm scent, promptly accepting praise and treats from his handler.

Trained to detect the smell of screwworm, a flesh-eating pest that has infected Mexico’s cattle herd and disrupted livestock trade with the United States, Hummer and his canine colleagues offer a glimmer of hope in controlling the worm.

At a government-run training center about an hour outside Mexico City, officials from a special unit of the country’s health safety agency Senasica run a three-month intensive training program for a select group of dogs to sniff out screwworm and other pests or diseases in live animals or agricultural products.

Most of the dogs are rescued from shelters, allowing animals that may have been abandoned for being too difficult to find a new life. Feisty pups that steal food from the table, never calm down and have a relentless desire to play are the perfect candidates.

“Sometimes what people don’t want is the ideal for us,” said Cesar Dangu, head of the canine training center Ceacan. “We also have to look for other qualities: that they don’t get angry, they are affectionate, they can live with people and with other animals.”

Not all dogs respond to the aroma of screwworm, a pest that infests livestock and wildlife and carries maggots that burrow into the skin of living animals, causing serious and often fatal damage.

Some dogs will refuse to approach the aroma, Dangu said, making those that take to it even more valuable in their task.

After cases started emerging in Mexico, the U.S. closed its southern border to imports of certain livestock, including cattle, in May before a gradual reopening began this week.

On Wednesday, however, the U.S. government once again closed the border to cattle after a new case of screwworm was detected in Veracruz state, about 370 miles (595 km) south of the U.S. border, a decision Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum called “exaggerated.”

On a sunny afternoon at Ceacan, just hours after the border closure announcement, the work of the dogs took on new urgency.

There are only six screwworm-sniffing dogs working at a livestock border passage in the southern state of Chiapas, which borders Guatemala, the heart of Mexico’s screwworm infestation.

Havana, a two-year-old Shepherd mix, practices detecting screwworm on cow-sized equipment inside a greenhouse, a training exercise meant to mimic the sweltering heat the dogs must tolerate in Chiapas, said instructor Mayte Tontle.

“We want our dogs to adapt as much as possible to the real-life conditions,” Tontle said.

With at least 47 new cases of screwworm detected daily in Mexico, according to government data, the handful of highly trained canines are a small element of Mexico’s response, which also includes a $51 million facility in Chiapas to produce sterile flies to reduce the reproducing population of the wild flies.

The plant, with a hefty $21 million investment from the U.S., is expected to be ready in the first half of 2026.

The dogs trained at Ceacan will work until they complete eight years on the job or turn 10 years old, whichever comes first.

After that, they retire.

“I would say 99% of the dogs are adopted by their handler. There is an unbreakable link because of the love between the handler and the dog,” Dangu said.

Reporting by Cassandra Garrison; additional reporting by Alicia Fernandez and Raquel Cunha; Editing by Lincoln Feast.

The company has been investing in its direct-to-consumer-first strategy and focusing on its core denim lifestyle products

International News via Reuters:

Levi Strauss shares rose 7% on Friday after the denim maker raised its annual revenue and profit forecasts, counting on robust demand at its stores and website to offset a margin hit from U.S. tariffs.

The company has been investing in its direct-to-consumer-first strategy and focusing on its core denim lifestyle products, which drove second-quarter sales and profit beat.

Levi’s results beat was “impressive”, said Dana Telsey, analyst at Telsey Advisory Group. The raised forecast was also encouraging as it now includes an estimated impact from 30% tariffs on China and 10% duties on other countries, Telsey added.

The denim maker said it would counter President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports into the U.S. by diversifying its supply chain to further reduce dependence on China and source from countries such as Bangladesh and Cambodia.

“Increased annual guidance comes despite tariff impacts and displays Levi’s advantaged revenue and sourcing base diversification,” said Jim Duffy, analyst at Stifel.

To be sure, the updated forecast does not account for Trump’s proposed 36% tariff rate on Cambodia and a 35% levy on U.S. imports from Bangladesh, which are set to go into effect on August 1.

About 60% of Levi’s revenue came from outside of the U.S., which grew 10% in the second quarter, led by Europe. Revenue from the U.S. grew 7%.

The company’s focus on denim dresses and skirts and growth in its women’s apparel and Beyond Yoga brand have led to increased purchases from younger customers, said J.P.Morgan analyst Matthew Boss in a note.

Levi’s stock trades at 14.92 times analysts’ estimates for the company’s earnings for the next 12 months, compared with 20.32 for Ralph Lauren and 8.46 for Abercrombie & Fitch, according to LSEG data.

Reporting by Juveria Tabassum in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo

Deepfakes such as AI-generated images and videos, and audio that convincingly impersonates real people, pose mounting risks

International News via Reuters:

Companies must use advanced tools to detect and stamp out misinformation and deepfake content to help counter growing risks of election interference and financial fraud, the United Nations’ International Telecommunication Union urged in a report on Friday.

Deepfakes such as AI-generated images and videos, and audio that convincingly impersonates real people, pose mounting risks, the ITU said in the report released at its “AI for Good Summit” in Geneva. 

The ITU called for robust standards to combat manipulated multimedia and recommended that content distributors such as social media platforms use digital verification tools to authenticate images and videos before sharing. 

“Trust in social media has dropped significantly because people don’t know what’s true and what’s fake,” Bilel Jamoussi, Chief of the Study Groups Department at the ITU’s Standardization Bureau, noted. Combatting deepfakes was a top challenge due to Generative AI’s ability to fabricate realistic multimedia, he said.

Leonard Rosenthol of Adobe, a digital editing software leader that has been addressing deepfakes since 2019, underscored the importance of establishing the provenance of digital content to help users assess its trustworthiness.

“We need more of the places where users consume their content to show this information…When you are scrolling through your feeds you want to know: ‘can I trust this image, this video…'” Rosenthol said.

Dr. Farzaneh Badiei, founder of digital governance research firm Digital Medusa, stressed the importance of a global approach to the problem, given there is currently no single international watchdog focusing on detecting manipulated material.

“If we have patchworks of standards and solutions, then the harmful deepfake can be more effective,” she told Reuters.

The ITU is currently developing standards for watermarking videos – which make up 80% of internet traffic – to embed provenance data such as creator identity and timestamps.

Tomaz Levak, founder of Switzerland-based Umanitek, urged the private sector to proactively implement safety measures and educate users. 

“AI will only get more powerful, faster or smarter… We’ll need to upskill people to make sure that they are not victims of the systems,” he said. 

Reporting by Olivia Le Poidevin; Editing by Hugh Lawson