International news via Reuters:

The euro touched a four-month peak against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the sixth time in nine months, as expected, but revised higher its near-term inflation forecast.

The single European currency rose 0.5% to $1.0848, after earlier hitting a four-month high of $1.0854. The euro has gained 4.5% so far this week, set for its biggest weekly jump since May 2009.

Germany is ramping up spending, with a massive 500 billion euro ($540.90 billion) special fund sought for infrastructure and plans to increase defense investment long-shackled by rigid borrowing rules. Hefty government spending, which can be supportive for growth overall, can also exacerbate price pressures.

Measures of longer-term inflation in the euro zone have already surged from around 2.05% early this week to 2.24% by Thursday, an unusually large shift. The ECB has raised its inflation forecast to 2.3% this year, above the 2.1% seen three months ago.

The dollar, on the other hand, continued to struggle on Thursday, as the United States under the Trump administration pressed ahead with planned tariffs that have raised fears of a prolonged global trade war that could have severe repercussions for economic growth and inflation.

For now, the attention is on Europe amid a Bund sell-off that saw the 10-year benchmark yield on Wednesday post its biggest daily rise in more than 25 years.

“The ECB is likely to be fairly cautious of treading such new ground and higher interest rates may prevail as a result,” said Lindsay James, investment strategist, at Quilter in London.

A big focus for investors is the expected impact of Germany’s huge spending plan on ECB monetary policy. ECB President Christine Lagarde, in a press conference, said the spending proposals would boost European growth.

But she noted that the ECB needed to be “attentive, vigilant” and to understand how it was going to work. “What the timing will be, what the financing will be so that we can then draw the conclusions and appreciate how much it will contribute to growth and what impact it would have eventually on inflation,” she said.

Across the Atlantic, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against six peers, was on a four-day losing streak on Thursday, falling to a four-month low. It was last down 0.4% at 103.88.

Trump’s administration, which has slapped tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, gave a one-month reprieve on auto import levies to its nearest neighbors, again showing how rapidly the trade landscape can shift.

“It is clear that in the case of a deepening U.S. slowdown, ongoing good news from Europe and noisy U.S. tariff policy could add fuel to the fire,” Barclays analysts wrote in a research note.

The greenback fell 0.5% against the Canadian dollar to C$1.4272.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Thursday that Canada would continue to be in a trade war with the United States for the foreseeable future. He would continue to engage with senior Trump administration officials about the tariffs on all Canadian imports, he said.

International news via Reuters:

A day after getting a boost from the Supreme Court, U.S. foreign aid contractors and grant recipients go before a federal judge on Thursday to try to restore funding halted by President Donald Trump’s administration in his drive to shut down American humanitarian efforts globally.

The case before U.S. District Judge Amir Ali represents an early test of the legality of Trump’s aggressive moves since returning to the presidency in January to assert power over federal spending including funding approved by Congress. 

A hearing is scheduled in Washington for 2 p.m. (1900 GMT) before Ali after the Supreme Court on Wednesday upheld his emergency order for the administration to promptly release funding to contractors and recipients of grants from the U.S. Agency for International Development and State Department. The funding would cover close to $2 billion for work already completed by the organizations.

The Supreme Court, whose 6-3 conservative majority includes three justices appointed by Trump during his first term, has hit the brakes on two actions by the president while challenges continue in lower courts. On February 21, it declined to let Trump immediately fire the head of a federal watchdog agency after a judge’s order temporarily blocked the dismissal, though an appeals court allowed the firing to go ahead on Wednesday.

Its 5-4 decision on Wednesday to uphold Ali’s order could offer clues on how the top U.S. judicial body will treat disputes over Trump’s power to suspend or cancel funding appropriated by Congress – an issue central to numerous legal challenges as he and adviser Elon Musk move to overhaul and downsize the federal government.

“It was not a ruling on the merits. But it is significant that the court will allow the judge’s order to lift the freeze on federal funds. It likely reflects that five justices believe Trump lacks the power to impound funds as he has claimed,” said Erwin Chemerinsky, a constitutional law scholar and dean of the University of California, Berkeley School of Law.

Chief Justice John Roberts and fellow conservative Amy Coney Barrett joined the court’s three liberal members to form a majority in rejecting the administration’s request. Conservative Justices Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh dissented.

Alito in a written dissent expressed dismay at the court’s action, calling himself “stunned.”

“The vehement Alito dissent makes it even more likely that the majority opinion reflects the justices’ views and is not just a procedural ruling,” Chemerinsky said.

Alito’s position expressed in the dissent, Chemerinsky added, “would seemingly give the president control over all federal spending regardless of appropriations statutes.”

‘BRAZEN DEFIANCE’

Ali earlier issued a temporary order for the administration to release the funds, but the government stalled for weeks, arguing that it possessed the authority to keep payments frozen while it reviewed contracts and grants. The plaintiffs labeled this as “brazen defiance” of Ali’s order. 

On February 25, the judge gave the administration a firm deadline to release some of the funds, prompting it to ask the Supreme Court to block the order, which it declined to do.

Despite the Supreme Court’s action, the future of the funding remains unclear. The administration said last week it has made final decisions to terminate more than 90% of USAID foreign aid contracts and more than $58 billion in overall U.S. assistance worldwide, meaning that in its view the original freeze that Ali had blocked was no longer in effect.

The Supreme Court’s ruling acknowledged that the administration said it was unable to comply with Ali’s deadline and asked the judge to clarify what the government must do with “due regard for the feasibility of any compliance timelines.” Ali asked both sides to submit a report on the government’s compliance with his order in advance of Thursday’s hearing.

The plaintiffs have accused Trump of exceeding his authority under federal law and the U.S. Constitution by effectively dismantling an independent federal agency and canceling spending authorized by Congress.

They also have said the administration did not conduct a genuine review before canceling contracts. They are asking Ali, who was appointed by the Republican president’s Democratic predecessor Joe Biden, for an order called a preliminary injunction directing the administration to restore funding while their lawsuit proceeds.

Trump ordered a 90-day pause on all U.S. foreign aid on his first day back in office. That action, and ensuing stop-work orders halting USAID operations around the world, have jeopardized the delivery of life-saving food and medical aid, throwing global humanitarian relief efforts into chaos. The administration has placed most USAID staff on leave and has eliminated 1,600 jobs.

Reporting by Brendan Pierson in New York and John Kruzel in Washington; Editing by Will Dunham