Researchers from Colorado State University are predicting a somewhat below-average season
How many storms will there be in the next Atlantic hurricane season?
It’s a question researchers endeavour to answer each year using models – and one that is always top of mind for many islanders.
A team within the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University is projecting 13 named storms.
Of those, they anticipate six to become hurricanes and two to become major hurricanes, defined as Category 3 or higher.
In total, hurricane activity is expected to dip to about 75% of the long-term seasonal average.
By comparison, last year’s hurricane activity was about 105% of the average season.
The CSU team cites the forecast of a “robust El Niño” as a primary factor in their prediction, along with mixed signals in Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
A media release explains, ““El Niño, a recurring climate pattern that is characterized by warmer than normal water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic. These winds result in increased vertical wind shear which is unfavourable for Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification.”
Researchers also included the probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2026: 32% for the entire U.S. coastline, 15% for the U.S. East Coast, 20% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas, and 35% for the Caribbean.
The CSU team says it will issue updates to this forecast on June 10th, July 8th, and August 5th.
The CSU forecast, now in its 43rd year, is intended to provide a best estimate of activity in the Atlantic during the upcoming season, not an exact measure.
Another key outlook will be released next month by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.
An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Last year, the Atlantic basin produced 13 named storms, of which five became hurricanes, including four major hurricanes.
Bermuda got away relatively unscathed overall. However, Hurricane Imelda, a Category 2 hurricane, did make a direct hit, leaving more than 17,000 BELCO customers without power. Widespread structural damage was minimal.
